Flood in the Ahr valley (Germany)
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Tasks
- Describe the main problems caused by the flood in the Ahr valley.
- Explain the social, cultural and economic impacts on the inhabitants of the Ahr valley.
- Research how the reconstruction of destroyed areas after extreme weather events is carried out in the Global South and how it is financed.
- Discuss who is responsible for supporting people and maintaining infrastructure and give reasons for your opinion.
Intense heavy rainfall events occurred in Germany and neighbouring countries in July 2021 in connection with the „Bernd“ weather low. These led to severe flooding, particularly in the Ahr valley, which claimed over 180 lives and caused considerable damage to the infrastructure. Houses, roads, railway tracks and much more were destroyed and had to be rebuilt. The financial damage is considerable. After the devastating flood disaster, various support measures were initiated. Firstly, there was emergency aid for those affected to cover urgent needs such as accommodation. The responsible authorities made 800 million euros available for this purpose.
An extensive fund with a volume of up to 30 billion euros was set up for long-term reconstruction. Of this, 12.3 billion euros are earmarked for North Rhine-Westphalia and 15 billion euros for Rhineland-Palatinate, with Saxony and Bavaria also being taken into account. Funding will be provided in equal parts by the federal and state governments.
Local authorities, associations, companies and private individuals are eligible for assistance from this fund. The funds can be applied for various purposes, including the demolition of buildings, renovation work or new construction. There are also lump sums for destroyed household goods.
The aim of these measures is to provide comprehensive support for reconstruction in the affected areas and to help people cope with the consequences of the floods.
The flood disaster put the climate debate at the centre of the 2021 federal election campaign, but the question arises as to whether a direct link can be established between climate change and this specific event, especially in light of historical incidents of heavy rainfall and flooding.
Scientific studies are based on extensive simulations over long periods of time and various scenarios. Although no model can predict with certainty whether a particular event would have occurred without climate change, the results indicate that such extreme weather events would occur much less frequently in a world without climate change.
With regard to the Ahr Valley, a study from August 2021 found that such extreme rainfall events could be expected statistically every 400 years in a typical Western European region. However, climate change has increased this probability by a factor of 1.2 to 9, meaning that such events could now potentially occur every 50 years.
These findings emphasise the complexity of climate research and the challenges of attributing individual events to climate change, but also clearly show the increased risks posed by global warming.
Bonn geographer Thomas Roggenkamp says: „The floods of July 2021 should be categorised as an extreme, but not unique, event. Similar events are known to have occurred in pre-industrial times“. The direct causality between climate change and the specific flood disaster in the Ahr valley cannot be established beyond doubt. However, scientific findings indicate that global warming can significantly increase the frequency and intensity of such extreme weather events. This means that similar disasters could possibly occur more frequently and with greater severity in the future, even if climate change cannot be identified as the sole cause of an individual event.